LONGITUDINAL PREDICTORS OF POPULARITY AND UNPOPULARITY IN MIDDLE CHILDHOOD AND EARLY ADOLESCENCE

As children enter middle childhood, they become increasing focused on navigating the peer system, which provides an acute awareness of the social hierarchy and their place in it (Gottman & Mettetal, 1986; Parker & Gottman, 1989). Some children even prioritize attaining social status over maintaining friendships (LaFontana & Cillessen, 2010). Status matters because it describes an individual’s ability to compete for and control both physical and social resources (Hawley, 1999). Previous studies have identified two forms of affective regard, separate from the peer group and behavioral reputation, that predict popularity and unpopularity: acceptance and rejection (Marks et al., 2021). However, their relative importance has been unclear because previous studies have not included both in the same model and because most studies have been concurrent, not longitudinal. Affective markers of peer regard and behavioral markers of peer group reputation are moderately correlated, making it difficult to draw conclusions from separate studies of each. Studies which incorporate measures of each are few and limited in scope. The current study was designed to examine the origins of popularity and unpopularity by disentangling affective regard from behavioral reputation using a sample of 292 students enrolled in grades 4 to 6 (ages 9-13) of a university-affiliated school.