MONITORING AND MODELING URBAN GROWTH PROCESS AND MEASURING COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TO DISASTERS IN THE COASTAL UNITED STATES

Global population is increasing at an alarming rate with rapid urbanization of the earth’s land surface. Currently, more than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas and this number is projected to increase to 66% by 2050. Urban expansion in coastal zones is more complex due to the rapid urbanization and higher population growth. In the United States (US), more than 39% of the total population now lives in coastal counties. Although urbanization offers some advantages such as economic development, unplanned urbanization can adversely affect our environment. Additionally, coastal communities in the US are frequently impacted by disasters. Climate change such as sea level rise could intensify these coastal disasters and impact more lives and properties. Therefore, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing, this study examines these pressing environmental challenges with the coastal US as the Study area. We first quantified the historical spatiotemporal patterns and major explanatory factors of urban expansion in the Miami Metropolitan Area during 1992 - 2016 at different spatial scales. Additionally, different urban expansion dynamics such as expansion rate, pattern, types, intensity, and landscape metrics were analyzed. Multi-level spatiotemporal analyses suggest that urban growth varied both spatially and temporally across the study area. We then measured the community resilience to coastal disasters by constructing a composite index. Additionally, spatial relationships between resilience components and disaster impacts were investigated. Results suggest that northeastern coastal communities in the US are more resilient to disasters compared to the southeastern communities. Furthermore, community resilience varies across the space and resilience components used in this study can explain disaster damages. Finally, this research also simulates and predicts three future urban growth scenarios including business as usual, planned growth, and sustainable growth in the study area. Then current and future exposures to flooding were estimated by considering different sea level rise scenarios. Results suggest that future urban areas will be developed significantly in the flood risk areas if development is not restricted in the high-risk flooding zone. Findings from this study could be useful for area-specific disaster management policy guidelines and formation of land use policy and planning.