Predicted Spread in the Southeastern US of the Non-Native Lizard, Agama picticauda, Based on Current and Future Climate

Peters’s rock agama, Agama picticauda, is a West African lizard first observed in South Florida in 1975. It has since spread through much of the state and into southernmost Georgia. To better understand the potential spread of this invasive species in the southeastern US, I used Maxent species distribution models with native and non-native occurrences for A. picticauda with current and future bioclimatic variables. The models suggest that by 2100, the species could spread through all of Florida, much of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and southern parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Virginia.