Spatio-temporal modeling of seed dispersal and aquatic plant community restoration in the Kissimmee River floodplain

This study created an ecological spatial model, using a geographic information system, to visualize the influence of hydrochory on restoration of the three dominant wetland communities of broadleaf marsh, wetland shrub, and wet prairie across the floodplain of the Kissimmee River. Primary parameters incorporated into the model included floodplain hydrology, seed characteristics of buoyancy and dispersal rates, and species flood tolerance. S²rensen's similarity index, comparing spatial agreement among model output and observed community data, resulted in values of BLM-BB = 0.10, BLM = 0.07, WS = 0.21, and WP = 0.36. The significant discrepancies between modeled and observed community spatial coverage indicated a need for incorporation of more stochastic variables of climatic disturbances, nutrient availability, and soil characteristics. More research on species flood tolerance across smaller spatial scales is also needed, and base data incorporated into the model should also be reliable and consistent if accuracy is to be achieved.