SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF NORTH ATLANTIC STORM TRAJECTORIES

Storms in the North Atlantic Ocean are observed on a continual basis yearly. Storm trajectories exhibit random behavior and are costly to society. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) contains every storm’s track from the year 1851 to 2022. Data of each storm’s track can aid in decision making regarding their behavior. In this article, data analysis is performed on historical storm tracks during the years 1966 to 2022, where access to satellite information is available. Analysis on this data will be used to determine if the storms’ trajectory is statistically dependent on other storm’s trajectories at varying distances in space. The proposed model is a spatial statistical model that is fitted on an in-sample data set to determine the spatial relationship for storm trajectories at all pairwise directions or orientations. Afterwards, the model is assessed on an out-of-sample test data set for performance evaluation.