SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF THE FLORIDA BAY ECOSYSTEM IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND EVERGLADES RESTORATION

One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater flows to the Everglades and Florida Bay estuary. Coupled with climate change, future changes from restoration highlight the need to implement an ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) approach in Florida Bay. The Ecopath framework was used to develop and apply a mass-balanced food web model to the spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrological restoration and climate change through time. Results suggest Florida Bay is stabilized through large detrital energy pathways and low nutrient inputs, but subject to species distribution shifts due primarily to sea-level rise and salinity variation. A suite of winners and losers predicted provide an opportunity to ensure management strategies are designed appropriately to best achieve desired results for the future of the Florida Bay ecosystem.