STOCHASTIC METHODOLOGY TO QUANTIFY FLOOD-RISK FOR COASTAL AND INLAND AREAS

Current flood-risk models lack fidelity at the neighborhood level. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) develops flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates on the probability of flooding. First Street Foundation evaluates flood risk with regional and subjective measures, without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine a comprehensive flood-risk that accounts for severe, moderate, and nuisance flood events at the single-family home level, while also estimating the recovery time from the specified flood event.
The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to determine the Consequence of Flooding (CoF), following the 1-day 100-yr storm for the Probability of Flooding (PoF). The product of CoF and PoF provides an estimate of the flood-risk. An estimated Resilience Index value derived from flood-risk, is used to determine the recovery time after a severe or moderate