PATTERNS AND TRENDS THAT IMPACT TEACHER ATTRITION AND RETENTION: A RETROSPECTIVE STUDY

This study intended to examine factors potentially contributing to teacher retention and attrition at the local (district) level and the costs associated with this teacher movement. A secondary data set from a large urban school district in the southern United States served as the unit of analysis for this study. Demographic data on 25,724 teachers, from 2010-2019 were used in the analysis. A correlation, multiple regression, chi-square, and a demographic frequency distribution were run for each of the three criterion variables: teacher job attrition, teacher school attrition, and teacher retention. The predictor variables used in the analysis were gender, certification, total number of years teaching, and race/ethnicity. Student demographic data from the district were used as a comparison to teacher data from the same school district. Results indicated trends particular in teacher movement, whether job or school, impact the number of years a teacher stays in teaching. Special education certified teachers appear to be the most vulnerable to teacher movement. Teacher retention (leaving) averages over 17% each year over 10 years, costing $36 million dollars annually or over $367 million dollars over 10 years. At that rate, this district could experience a complete turnover of staff in only 5.7 years. Latino teachers are underrepresented in this teacher population and are out of proportion with the majority Latino student population. Black teachers change jobs and schools at statistically significantly higher rates than their White or Latino peers. National data are not longitudinal, and do not track teacher job movement, only teacher school movement. Current local data are critical for educational agencies, administrators, and decision makers to combat the teacher shortage. Findings from this study may inform the field about factors, trends, or patterns that contribute to teacher retention and attrition.