Salinity simulation in Florida Bay with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS)

Understanding and resolving the water quality problems that Florida Bay has
endured requires an understanding of its salinity drivers. Because salinity is the prime
factor that drives estuarine ecosystem, Florida Bay’s ecosystem health depends on the
correct salinity balance of the Bay. In this thesis, the Regional Oceanic Modeling System
- a hydrodynamic prognostic model -was implemented on Florida Bay and it was tailored
for shallow waters. Results show that the model captures most of the salinity spatial and
temporal variability of Florida Bay. Furthermore, it establishes the role of the major
drivers like evaporation, precipitation, and runoff on Florida Bay’s salinity. The model
resolves region specific salinity drivers in all four areas of Florida Bay characterized by
their own salinity regimes. The model was also able to reveal the impact of surface runoff
on salinity in the later part of the year when evaporation increases. A new technique was
developed to estimate the discharge and salinity of unmonitored small creeks north of
Florida Bay. Those data were estimated from the relationship between net freshwater flux, runoff, and salinity. Model results revealed the importance of accounting for these
small creeks to accurately simulate Florida Bay’s salinity.