AN EXPLORATION OF THE SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC DICHOTOMY OF SHRINKING CITIES AND FORMERLY SHRINKING CITIES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE BACK-TO-THE-CITY MOVEMENT

Within the U.S. in recent decades a renewed interest in downtown and city living has become known as the “back-to-the-city movement” and contributed to the stabilization and regrowth of cities that were previously losing population. This trend, however, is not occurring equally and many cities within the U.S. that have been losing population for decades are still continuing to lose population (“shrinking city”). This study seeks to understand what sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics are contributing the greatest to the back-to-the-city movement and develop a composite index that can be used to identify if similar trends are beginning to emerge in shrinking cities. Variables identified through various literature for their association with back-to-the-city movement were analyzed through a proportion composition analysis comparing changes in growing versus non-growing census tracts at the city-wide and downtown level of 86 cities within this study. The analysis was conducted for the time periods of 1970 to 2017 and 1990 to 2017. The results justified variables for inclusion in back-to-the-city movement composite index, however, the analysis found some trends differed at the city-wide versus downtown geographic levels resulting in three potential index combinations. The three indices were calculated on census tracts for the 86 cities within this study and the results were decomposed to assess performance of individual variables. The results conclude that areas within some shrinking cities are exhibiting back-to-the-city movement trends, however, additional recommendations are provided for refining the index and methodology.