Electronic Thesis or Dissertation

Comparative performance measurement is an anathema to most government officials. While internal comparison with national benchmarks or other similar agencies is an accepted management analysis tool, public comparisons are deemed too politically risky for all but a few governments, agencies, and non-profits. To avoid the unappealing prospect of being unfavorably ranked versus comparable agencies, governments cite two primary objections. First, performance measurement is considered an inexact science, subject to manipulation of input data and outcome scores that affects comparisons. Second, comparative measurement is considered unfair by governments because they maintain each operates in a unique environment of demographic and physical characteristics beyond their control which have significant effects on their ability to deliver quality services. This research addresses both of these objections to comparative performance measurement. It uses trained observer ratings, an accepted objective measurement system, and utilizes a scoring scheme that results in a ratio variable outcome score appropriate for comparisons and statistical analysis. The model was employed for external random testing of street appearance across 30 governments in Broward County, Florida, eliminating the possibility of manipulation by those being measured. In addition, the research evaluates the effects of twelve independent variables, which measure characteristics of each community's unique environment. The research question is whether the effects of the external environmental factors on the composite street rating scores are so significant as to make comparisons meaningless, as government officials contend. The findings of this research do indicate that white, educated, affluent residents tend to live in cities with better streets and that environment is an important element in street appearance. Further, the standard deviation scores indicate that the more diversity in the environment of a city, the more diversity in the quality of its streets. Nonetheless, the conclusion of the research is that although environment is significant, the methods and findings of the model can be employed to control for environmental effects in future comparative performance efforts to assuage the concerns of governments being compared.

Two hundred and seventy-five police officer candidates were assessed from 1982 to 1986. The ethnic and gender composition of the candidate sample was as follows: white males = 40; white female = 15; black males = 38, black females = 20; hispanic males = 149; hispanic females = 13. The data for this investigation came from a one-day assessment program. The candidates participated in four assessment exercises in which they were required to assume the position of a police officer. The candidates investigated simulations of a domestic disturbance, and a homeowner complaint, performed a witness probing and watched a video simulation of actual or potential crime scenes. The data for each candidate consisted of ratings on eight behavioral dimensions from three assessors, the group consensus ratings for each dimension, and a consensus-derived overall rating which placed each candidate in one of three descriptive categories: (1) less than acceptable, (2) marginal, or (3) acceptable. Performance in the training academy and on the job performance ratings were used as criteria in the validation. The training academy criteria consisted of four written exam scores, scores on firearms proficiency, and two simulations. Composite measures were derived for the written exams, and the simulations. The last training academy criterion was a composite measure derived by summing the standardized written exam scores and the standardized simulation proficiency scores. The assessment center dimension ratings were significantly correlated (p $<$.05) with the written exam composite and the standardized training academy composite. The overall assessment rating was significantly correlated (p $<$.05) with the written exam composite, the standardized training academy composite, and one of the simulations. On the job performance was assessed by uncontaminated supervisory performance ratings on 204 police officers. An average of 13 performance ratings were available on each candidate. The uncorrected predictive validity of the assessment center was.20. Results are discussed in the context of previous assessment center and law enforcement research.

Using both exogenous and endogenous theory, this paper develops a synthesized model treating human capital as an endogenous contributor to long run economic growth. Human capital is assumed to be the basis of such growth, therefore, the focus is not on technological change per se. Through empirical analysis, human capital is measured by knowledge, and that the accumulation of knowledge, or specialization, is determined through an incentive system. The incentive system, in turn, is determined by the difference in wages paid to certain types of knowledge, those being a general level and a specialized level of knowledge. It is assumed that the learning process can take place at any time, therefore, the specialization process is not limited to an academic environment. A spillover effect associated with specialized knowledge provides for increasing returns to scale in the model, which is also supported by empirical data.

This study investigates the existence of Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) between the United States and Japan. The study is conducted over a 58-month period beginning in January 1994 and continuing through October 1998. This study used unit root, cointegration, and causality tests to examine whether the exchange rates and interest rates of the two countries lent support to the UIP hypothesis. All data sets were found to contain a unit root. Further, there was no evidence for cointegration between the exchange rate and any of the explanatory variables (US interest rates, Japanese interest rates, and the interest rate differential). However, Granger-causality was discovered between the interest rate differential and the exchange rate. Thus, it can be said there is a causal relationship between the interest rate differential and the exchange rate. Lastly, this study gives some validity to the UIP hypothesis.

Adjusting prices for quality change is an important issue. This study employs a hedonic quality measurement technique to assess the effects of quality on domestic passenger airfare. The econometric analysis utilizes pooled quarterly data on average fare for the largest-share and the lowest-fare carriers, for each of the approximately top 1,000 routes from 1996:Q3 to 1998:Q2. The hedonic regression specifies airfare as a function of distance, total passengers, market share of the airline, and quality variables measuring on-time performance, oversales, baggage handling, complaints, and airline safety. Quality characteristics are found to have several important effects on airfare. Oversales revealed a statistically significant impact on airfare for all distance blocks, passenger complaints were important on short and long routes, and on-time performance and baggage handling were valued by customers only on shorter routes. Competition from low-fare carriers, and differences between airline groups are also identified to be important factors.

This thesis examines the direction of causality between tax revenues and public investment, using data from the Greek economy. This study applies the methodologies of OLS regression analysis and tests of cointegration to examine the relationship between tax revenues and public investment. In addition, a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR model) is included in this paper. The empirical results reveal unidirectional causality from tax revenues to public investment which suggests that tax and spending decisions are not made jointly by the Greek fiscal authorities.

For a stock market to allocate funds efficiently, stock prices should immediately incorporate all of the information available. If we find that there is a lag between changes in variables that might affect the price of stocks, and the reflection of that change in its price, the market for stocks will be inefficient. This thesis tests the stock markets in six of the largest developed economies for informational efficiency. It tests the stock markets in Canada, France, Germany, Japan, The United Kingdom, and The United States, for the existence of a causal relationship between changes in the money supply and changes in stock prices, and applies the Granger-causality test to perform it. A stock market is informationally inefficient if a causal relationship between changes in the money supply and changes in stock prices is found. In this case, money supply changes could be used to predict movements in the prices of stocks, create profitable trading rules, and help us earn above-normal returns, thus casting doubts on the ability of the stock market to allocate funds efficiently.

Since the beginning of President Clinton's administration, the cigarette industry has been under a lot of pressure to change the way they do business, how they advertise. This study was not intended to be for or against the issue of smoking but to see which variable affects smoking after the consumer makes the adult decision to smoke. Three different econometric analyses were used to come up with these results; Logit, OLS and Linear Probability Model. The findings indicate that variables like income, pack per week smoked, age, years smoking and gender are significant in determining if an adult consumer continues to smoke. In addition, age, race, and years smoking are good indicators of whether a smoker is or is not price conscious. Years smoking, age, and education of a smoker's mother also have an effect on how much cigarettes an adult smoker consumes.

This study investigates the existence of long run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the G7 countries (the United States, Canada, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Japan). Using the unit root test as well as cointegration techniques we have tested the PPP doctrine. The empirical results indicate that both effective exchange rate and consumer price index time series are nonstationary. Furthermore, the relationship between the effective exchange rate and the price level is shown to be in long run equilibrium in the United States, Canada, Japan and Italy but no evidence for PPP can be found for Germany, the United Kingdom and France. Thus, it can be claimed that the United States, Canada and Japan's markets allow the exchange rate to fluctuate freely as opposed to the European markets, since European economies are prone to disturbances (real shocks) that lead to permanent deviations from the PPP.