Stronge, William B.

This thesis is a study of time series modeling techniques
applied to the relationship between the rate of inflation and
unemployment. The data used in this study are quarterly for
the United States from 1948 - 1981. The study begins by reviewing
the major theories of inflation and unemployment.
Univariate stochastic time series methods are introduced and
applied to the above-mentioned relationship. Multivariate
stochastic time series methods are then fit to a series of
related variables to investigate the validity of the lag
structures employed on the relationship between inflation
and unemployment.

This thesis reviews the majot' literature associated
with the Capital Asset Pricing Model with emphasis on related
controversial issues. The model's underlying theories, developed
by Harry Markowitz and James Tobin, are presented first.
This is followed by themathematicalderivation, developed by
William Sharpe. Special attention is given to the controversial
assumptions imposea by Markowitz and Tobin, which emerge
in the CAPM. Major tests of the CAPM are reviewed next: and
the empirical problems associated with test design are highlighted.
It is shown that variations in test design produce
controversial test results. The specific tests reviewed here
fail to provide strong support for the nodel; nevertheless it
becomes evident that such tests fostered a vast outpouring of
new and extended models. The CAPM remains a breakthrough in
financial and economic literature which deserves to be explored
even more intensely in the future.

This thesis deals with regional econometric models. The
first chapter discusses static economic modeling. Chapter Two
deals with models of substate regional economics. The third
chapter presents an econometric model of Florida's Gold
Coast including dynamic analysis of short and long run
adjustment.

In economic theory, the question has regularly arisen as to
how far the growth rate of the money supply and the rate of
inflation could influence the development of the economy in
the long run. This concentrates basically to the question
whether money - dynamically considered - is neutral or not.
We intend to review in this study the present state of monetary
theory as it appears from the literature. We shall be
focusing on the question whether money maintains the feature
of neutrality in a framework of growth theory.

This thesis deals with the efficient markets hypothesis as
it applies to the securities market. The first chapter
provides the various forms of the EMH and its theoretical
basis. Chapter two analyzes the weak form of the EMH and
the major empirical contributions concerning it. Chapter
three presents the strong forms of the EMH. It is concluded
on the basis of a substantial and consistent body of analysis
that efficient is an accurate description of the securities
market.

The theoretical specification of empirical issues associated
with statistical cost functions are reviewed. This is followed
by a review of the major works in the field of hospital
cost function estimation. The final chapter contains an
econometric estimation of cost functions for Florida hospitals
in 1976. Included are estimations of total and average cost
functions specified as functions of output alone. Additional
variables are added to the specification of the average cost
function including: speed of production; product heterogeneity;
urbanization; control of the hospital and the interactions of
control with speed of production; and product complexity.
These variables significantly improve the explanatory power
of the function which results in an inverted L-shaped curve.

This thesis is a study of time series modeling methods
applied to six economic indicators. The weaknesses of the
turning point analysis used by the National Bureau of
Economic Research and deterministic models which fail to
explain the random component of a series' movement are
discussed. Univariate stochastic time series methods are
introduced and applied to the economic indicators. The
resulting models fit the data much more closely and their
residuals are white noise. Bivariate time series models
are estimated for pairs of economic indicators from similar
economic processes to investigate the validity of the lag
structures commonly employed on the basis of turning point
analysis.

This thesis focuses on seasonal employment. It thus includes a
theoretical examination of factors which cause variations in employment
in the year, seasonal models are reviewed and estimated. From the
empirical analysis, it was concluded that seasonality is partly
desirable to individuals. It helps the optimum allocation of time
between market and non-market activities.

In this thesis the literature of disequilibrium macroeconomic theory
was reviewed and the empirical relevance of the Keynesian interpretation
of the labor demand function was examined and contrasted to the
disequilibrium interpretation of Barro and Grossman, Patinkin's
disequilibrium theory of the labor market and Clower's partial
disequilibrium analysis of the commodity market were examined in depth.
The bulk of the literature review was devoted to the general disequilibrium
model of income and employment determination developed by Barro and
Grossman. Barra and Grossman's criticism of Keynes for predicting a
negatively sloped labor demand function was analyzed using regression
analysis to estimate the function. Barro and Grossman's criticism
was found to be based on insufficient evidence, and evidence presented
in this thesis supported the Keynesian position.

This thesis reviews the major literature associated
with the Life Cycle Hypothesis of Consumption and Saving as
formulated by Franco Modigliani, Richard Brumberg and Albert
Ando. The initial microeconomic formulation of the theoretical
model of individual consumer behavior in terms of life
time planning was examined under conditions of both stability
and growth. Next, the attempts to seek empirical support for
the propositions of the theory in cross-section survey data and
the tests of the aggregate implications of the theory were
examined. It was concluded that within the current conceptual
framework of macroeconomics the theory has a fairly
high level of explanatory force, and should further future
inquiry.