Yuhn, Ky-Hyang

The new Keynesian wage Phillips curve (NKWPC) is derived from the standard new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) that is examined and verified by many economists. The NKWPC model uses the structural wage equation to present the significant inverse relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate in the US economy with the significant assumption of a constant natural rate of unemployment. This study examines the NKWPC model using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic-M (GARCH-M) to confirm the critical inverse relationship of the Phillips curve. In particular, this study tests the NKWPC separately targeting the official unemployment rate from Komlos (2019)’s real unemployment rate.
The estimated results of this study support the NKWPC re-confirming a significant negative relationship between wage inflation and unemployment, using two different econometric techniques of GMM and GARCH-M. Moreover, it is apparent that they do not distinguish the official unemployment rate from the real unemployment rate. The Phillips curve is not just a unicorn, or rarity, in the economic world. It is a substantial indicator and still holds merit. This study yields to another lending support to the importance of the Phillips curve.

Analyzing the effect of military expenditure on economic growth has been an essential task for U.S economists. This thesis analyzed macroeconomic components for the last 70 years by estimating the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model and vector autoregressive model. To interpret the empirical analysis, historical analysis of the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Wars in the Middle East, was made. One found the negative effect of military spending during wartime on the economic growth of the United States. This thesis suggests that the policymakers and military commanders should focus on shortening the state of war to minimize economic damage to the United States.

For the last fifty years, the efficient market hypothesis has been the central
pillar of economic thought and touted by all, despite Sanford Grossman’ and
Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz’ objection in 1980. Andrew Lo updated the
efficient market hypothesis in 2004 to reconcile irrational human behavior and
cold, calculating automatons. This thesis utilizes 33 years of oil futures, GARCH
regressions, and the Jensen-Shannon informational criteria to provide extensive
empirical objections to informational efficiency. The results demonstrate
continuously inefficient oil future markets which exhibit decreased informational
efficiency during recessionary periods, advocating the adaptive market
hypothesis over the efficient market hypothesis.

After the 1980s debt crisis had officially come to an end, most developing nations in Asia and Latin America successfully reentered the global capital market. Private capital flows into these regions surged to unprecedented heights. Present paper gives an overview of what gave rise to this sudden come-back of external finance to the developing world, why its composition and geographical dispersion had changed, and how it affected the macroeconomic environment of the recipient nation. Furthermore, a cross-section econometric analysis is applied to thirty-four countries for the early 1990s, to determine the effect of private inflows on the growth rate of real GDP, as a proxy for economic development, in the context of a standard neoclassical growth equation framework. Results confirm the favorable impact of portfolio investment, but foreign direct investment appears to hinder economic growth. An attempt is made to interpret these results and compare them with existing empirical research.

Major financial newspapers and financial news programs in the United States, such as the Wall Street Journal and the Financial News Network, often mention macroeconomic data in attempting to predict a potential adjustment in the level of stock market prices. The presentation ofthis data is particularly prevalent when the level of stock market prices is in record territory. However, many believe that there exists no relationship, correlation or causal relationship between the level of stock market prices and macroeconomic indicators, especially in technologically advanced nations. The purpose ofthis paper is to test the efficiency of three international stock markets. If a stock market is efficient, all current information is instantaneously reflected in its price level. Since stock prices in an efficient market reflect all of the available information instantaneously, investors cannot profit by analyzing macroeconomic indicators. Thus, the implication is that there are no immediate profit-making opportunities in efficient markets and there are profit-making opportunities in less efficient markets. If the stock market ofthe United States is proven to be efficient, then the news media is incorrect in its presentation of macroeconomic data in order to predict an adjustment in the stock market.

Using both exogenous and endogenous theory, this paper develops a synthesized model treating human capital as an endogenous contributor to long run economic growth. Human capital is assumed to be the basis of such growth, therefore, the focus is not on technological change per se. Through empirical analysis, human capital is measured by knowledge, and that the accumulation of knowledge, or specialization, is determined through an incentive system. The incentive system, in turn, is determined by the difference in wages paid to certain types of knowledge, those being a general level and a specialized level of knowledge. It is assumed that the learning process can take place at any time, therefore, the specialization process is not limited to an academic environment. A spillover effect associated with specialized knowledge provides for increasing returns to scale in the model, which is also supported by empirical data.

This study investigates the existence of Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) between the United States and Japan. The study is conducted over a 58-month period beginning in January 1994 and continuing through October 1998. This study used unit root, cointegration, and causality tests to examine whether the exchange rates and interest rates of the two countries lent support to the UIP hypothesis. All data sets were found to contain a unit root. Further, there was no evidence for cointegration between the exchange rate and any of the explanatory variables (US interest rates, Japanese interest rates, and the interest rate differential). However, Granger-causality was discovered between the interest rate differential and the exchange rate. Thus, it can be said there is a causal relationship between the interest rate differential and the exchange rate. Lastly, this study gives some validity to the UIP hypothesis.

This thesis examines the direction of causality between tax revenues and public investment, using data from the Greek economy. This study applies the methodologies of OLS regression analysis and tests of cointegration to examine the relationship between tax revenues and public investment. In addition, a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR model) is included in this paper. The empirical results reveal unidirectional causality from tax revenues to public investment which suggests that tax and spending decisions are not made jointly by the Greek fiscal authorities.

For a stock market to allocate funds efficiently, stock prices should immediately incorporate all of the information available. If we find that there is a lag between changes in variables that might affect the price of stocks, and the reflection of that change in its price, the market for stocks will be inefficient. This thesis tests the stock markets in six of the largest developed economies for informational efficiency. It tests the stock markets in Canada, France, Germany, Japan, The United Kingdom, and The United States, for the existence of a causal relationship between changes in the money supply and changes in stock prices, and applies the Granger-causality test to perform it. A stock market is informationally inefficient if a causal relationship between changes in the money supply and changes in stock prices is found. In this case, money supply changes could be used to predict movements in the prices of stocks, create profitable trading rules, and help us earn above-normal returns, thus casting doubts on the ability of the stock market to allocate funds efficiently.

Since the beginning of President Clinton's administration, the cigarette industry has been under a lot of pressure to change the way they do business, how they advertise. This study was not intended to be for or against the issue of smoking but to see which variable affects smoking after the consumer makes the adult decision to smoke. Three different econometric analyses were used to come up with these results; Logit, OLS and Linear Probability Model. The findings indicate that variables like income, pack per week smoked, age, years smoking and gender are significant in determining if an adult consumer continues to smoke. In addition, age, race, and years smoking are good indicators of whether a smoker is or is not price conscious. Years smoking, age, and education of a smoker's mother also have an effect on how much cigarettes an adult smoker consumes.