Risk perception

Florida has 906,465 residential properties facing substantial flood risk, making it imperative to understand how the public may perceive and respond to this risk. Providing people with scientific information may not be enough to impact behavior and decrease losses from flood events. We show participants (n = 20) scientific flood risk graphics and ask behavioral questions to evaluate responses based on the rational actor paradigm (RAP), psychometric paradigm, and cultural theory. We find results consistent with the RAP in 48% of cases, primarily in low risk scenarios. Participants from high income households are more likely to make rational decisions (80%) than those from low income households (~37%). Feelings of dread potentially help explain 40% of deviations from the RAP, while trust in flood experts helps explain 85% of non-RAP cases. Future flood risk communication should incorporate dread and trust in experts into messaging considerations as rationality alone is insufficient.

As flood risk rises in the U.S., technology and insights rise too, but even with these advances we still see the consequences of flood risk. Together, the rational actor paradigm (“RAP”), psychometrics, and cultural theory help to explain risk perceptions and behaviors of 20 respondents. Results from the mixed-methods approach found the RAP insufficient, less accurate than a coin toss (48%), when explaining respondent behaviors. Rather, risk perceptions and behaviors of the RAP explain the behaviors of lower risk portrayal groups (66%) and higher income groups (80%), with higher risk portrayals being relying on respondents’ trust in flood experts (45%) and cultural worldviews (55%). Cultural identities explain 65% of respondents’ behaviors across levels of risk portrayal (500-, 100-, and 25-year floodplain), and risk portrayal types (cumulative and AAL). In a world with increased risk, technology, and knowledge, researchers need understand the explanatory power of the RAP, psychometrics, and cultural theory.