Model
Digital Document
Publisher
Florida Atlantic University
Description
Tho basis of this study is a macroeconometric model
of Greece that consists of fifteen equations estimated by
ordinary least squares methods from annual data and five
definitional aggregates. The model is designed primarily
to explain the behavior of the Greek economy from 1953, but
it also has value for short run forecasting. A unique
feature is the emphasis given to the interplay of imports,
investment and exports. The stability test indicates a
stable model with a damped oscillation of a twenty-five
period cycle. The predictive ability tests were very
favorable and the Durbin-Watson tests indicated low auto-correlation.
Future forecasts were made with the use of
trend estimated values for the exogenous variables. Finally,
the analysis of multipliers was used to evaluate the policy
implications of the model.
of Greece that consists of fifteen equations estimated by
ordinary least squares methods from annual data and five
definitional aggregates. The model is designed primarily
to explain the behavior of the Greek economy from 1953, but
it also has value for short run forecasting. A unique
feature is the emphasis given to the interplay of imports,
investment and exports. The stability test indicates a
stable model with a damped oscillation of a twenty-five
period cycle. The predictive ability tests were very
favorable and the Durbin-Watson tests indicated low auto-correlation.
Future forecasts were made with the use of
trend estimated values for the exogenous variables. Finally,
the analysis of multipliers was used to evaluate the policy
implications of the model.
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