Macroeconomics

Analyzing the effect of military expenditure on economic growth has been an essential task for U.S economists. This thesis analyzed macroeconomic components for the last 70 years by estimating the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model and vector autoregressive model. To interpret the empirical analysis, historical analysis of the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Wars in the Middle East, was made. One found the negative effect of military spending during wartime on the economic growth of the United States. This thesis suggests that the policymakers and military commanders should focus on shortening the state of war to minimize economic damage to the United States.

This thesis presents a theoretical behavioral model that deals with the expansionary phase of the business cycle. Its purpose was to provide a plausible explanation for growth out of recession. In this model, expansionary output is directly related to investment, saving, and the expected returns to capital. Moreover, it is assumed that capital formation is inversely related to the interest rate, which serves as the independent variable with respect to investment, production, saving, and expected returns. In addition, the basic model is linked to the combined influence of fiscal and monetary policy through the use of a coefficient. This coefficient can alter the fundamental dynamic of the growth path. Finally, the four basic non-linear curves that compose the behavioral model are compared to curves suggested by scatter diagrams. In conclusion, there seems to be some conformity of statistical reality to the non-linear relationships described by the behavioral model, as well as general agreement with a large body of existent theory.