Forecasting

Data was provided by researchers of the Einstein Aging Study (EAS) of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Yeshiva University whom statistically analyzed data from the Bronx Aging Study cohort, concluding that participation in cognitive leisure activities and one physical activity, dancing, were associated with a reduced risk of dementia [1]. We explore data from a second (the EAS) cohort, utilizing Cox Proportional-Hazards and extended Cox regression [13]. Cognitive leisure activities in general, and particularly doing crossword puzzles, reading books, watching television, and emailing are associated with a reduced risk of dementia. Doing aerobics, learning computer programming, babysitting, dancing, jogging singing, and weight training are associated with an increased risk of dementia. Participation in cognitive leisure activities in general, and reading books in particular, remains highly significant even after adjustment for well-known risk factors [14] such as: age, cognitive status, depression, medical illnesses, gender, ethnicity, education and economic status.

The Market Timing - Buy and Hold (MT-BH) is introduced, tested against widely accepted performance models of market timing and tested if implamentation is possible. The MT-BH metric measures the condition of engaging in market timing strategies relative to buy and hold investing across an equity market. The metric provides an alternative explanation to why market timing results of investors and managers vary through time and across different equity markets. This dissertation examines how the is correlated with traditional market timing measures of the Treynor and Sharpe ratios over the 1995-2010 time period and how it affects widely used measures of regression based market timing models of Treynor- Mazuy and Henriksson-Merton. The Market Timing - Buy and Hold (MT-BH) metric can be applied to any equity market over any time period to condition the market timing skill of money managers in any equity market around the world. The final accomplishment of this dissertation is to determine if readily available finance and macro-economic variables can help investors determine which years are more favorable to pursue market timing strategies and which years favor buy and hold investing. When real GDP growth rates, inflation rates and PE ratios were low or negative and when dividend yields were high, market timing strategies were favorable across 44 country market indexes from 1994-2008. These results were robust to country level of development, negative market return years and other control variables. The conditions for pursing market timing strategies were time variant and detectable with macro-economic and finance variables. The MT-BH metric allows investors and brokers to determine when to switch from buy and hold investing to a market timing strategy using macro-economic and financial variables and helps to explain why market timing skill of managers is rarely found to be persistent.

This study focused on the capital costs of the community college baccalaureate (CCB) institutions established in the Florida College System (FCS) from 2001 to 2010. This period spanned the entire history to date of the Florida CCB. The data analyzed included selected institutional, financial, and baccalaureate characteristics of the Florida CCBs and for comparison included corresponding institutional and financial characteristics for the non-CCB institutions in the FCS. The data analysis investigated the relationships between these characteristics and the baccalaureate capital costs reported by Florida's CCB colleges. From these relationships, the historic average of the baccalaureate start-up capital cost was derived. In addition, the total baccalaureate capital cost for the system and for each Florida CCB college was also determined. As part of the process of conducting this study, a number of additional relationships between CCB and non-CCB institutions were explored, reported, and described.

The objective of this thesis is to analyze the flow past an ocean current turbine using a finite volume Navier-Stokes CFD solver. A full 3-D RANS approach in a moving reference frame is used to model the flow. By employing periodic boundary conditions, one-third of the flow-field is analyzed and the output is replicated to other sectors. Following validation of the computation with an experimental study, the flow fields and particle paths for the case of uniform and sheared incoming flows past a generic turbine with various blade pitch angles are evaluated and analyzed. Flow field and wake expansion are visualized. Eddy viscosity effects and its dependence on flow field conditions are investigated.

The main objective of the thesis is to carry out a rigorous hydrodynamic analysis of ocean current turbines and determine power for a range of flow and geometric parameters. For the purpose, a computational tool based on the vortex lattice method (VLM) is developed. Velocity of the flow on the turbine blades, in relation to the freestream velocity, is determined through induction factors. The geometry of trailing vortices is taken to be helicoidal. The VLM code is validated by comparing its results with other theoretical and experimental data corresponding to flows about finite-aspect ratio foils, swept wings and a marine current turbine. The validated code is then used to study the performance of the prototype gulfstream turbine for a range of parameters. Power and thrust coefficients are calculated for a range of tip speed ratios and pitch angles. Of all the cases studied, the one corresponding to tip speed ratio of 8 and uniform pitch angle 20 produced the maximum power of 41.3 [kW] in a current of 1.73 [m/s]. The corresponding power coefficient is 0.45 which is slightly less than the Betz limit power coefficient of 0.5926. The VLM computational tool developed for the research is found to be quite efficient in that it takes only a fraction of a minute on a regular laptop PC to complete a run. The tool can therefore be efficiently used or integrated into software for design optimization.

The purpose of this case study was to determine which, if any, alternative in delivering baccalaureate programs in the state of Florida was the most cost-effective one. This exploratory study focused on gaining an understanding of the cost effectiveness of two baccalaureate programs offered at a Florida community college to two like programs at a Florida university using qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The researcher interviewed five community college and three State Department of Education administrators during the Fall of 2007 and analyzed expenditure and effectiveness data from 2003-04 through 2006-07 to determine the cost effectiveness for the programs at each institution. The study revealed that the university and community college programs were equally effective as measured by student graduation and test scores. The community college baccalaureate programs were more cost effective, however, using a formula of per-student state funding combined with student cost. Th e lower per-student funding and student tuition charged resulted in the community college baccalaureate being a less expensive alternative of offering baccalaureate degrees to the state and the students. Using Henry Levin's ingredients model of measuring cost effectiveness, the quantitative analysis of the study revealed that that the university programs were more cost effective in the early years, but the differences diminished over time. Using Levin's model for comparison, the researcher concluded that increased growth in the enrollment of the programs combined with the implementation of effectiveness measures comparable to those of the university would render baccalaureate programs at the community colleges more cost effective.