Precipitation (Meteorology)

This study focuses on developing optimization models to estimate missing precipitation data at twenty-two sites within Kentucky State. Various optimization formulations and regularization models are explored in this context. The performance of these models is evaluated using a range of performance measures and error metrics for handling missing records. The findings revealed that regularization models performed better than optimization models. This superiority is attributed to their ability to reduce model complexity while enhancing overall performance. The study underscores the significance of regularization techniques in improving the accuracy and efficiency of precipitation data estimation.

Missing rainfall records happens frequently in many areas, and making precipitation estimation has been a challenge due to the spatial-temporal variability of the parameter. Model tree (MT), regression tree (RT), and ensemble approach models were developed and evaluated for estimating missing precipitation values in this research study. The selection of stations using correlation coefficient and similar distribution, and variation of data used to build the model were applied in this study. Proposed models were developed and tested using daily rainfall data from 1971 to 2016 at twenty-two stations in Kentucky, U.S.A. The model results were analyzed and evaluated using error and performance measures. The results indicated that MT-based and ensemble models produce a better estimation of missing rainfall than regression trees. The MT-based model was able to estimate missing rainfall accurately without needing objective selection of stations and using minimal calibration data to build the model.

Spatial and temporal interpolation methods are commonly used methods for estimating missing precipitation rain gauge data based on values recorded at neighboring gauges. However, these interpolation methods have not been comprehensively checked for their ability to preserve time series characteristics. Assessing the preservation of time series characteristics helps achieving a threshold criteria of length of gaps in a data set that is acceptable to be filled. This study evaluates the efficacy of optimal weighting interpolation for estimation of missing data in preserving time series characteristics. Rain gauges in the state of Kentucky are used as a case study. Several model performance measures are also evaluated to validate the filling model; followed by time series characteristics to evaluate the accuracy of estimation and preservation of precipitation data characteristics. This study resulted in a definition of region-specific threshold of the maximum length of gaps allowed in a data set at five percent.

Radar rainfall estimates have become a decision making tool for scientists, engineers and water managers in their tasks for developing hydrologic models, water supply planning, restoration of ecosystems, and flood control. In the present study, the utility of a power function for linking the rain gauge and radar estimates has been assessed. Mean daily rainfall data from 163 rain gauges installed within the South Florida Water Management District network have been used and their records from January 1st, 2002 to October 31st, 2007 analyzed. Results indicate that the power function coefficients and exponents obtained by using a non-linear optimization formulation, show spatial variability mostly affected by type of rainfall events occurring in the dry or wet seasons, and that the linear distance from the radar location to the rain gauge has a significant effect on the computed values of the coefficients and exponents.

This study focuses on two main broad areas of active research on climate: climate variability and climate change and their implications on regional precipitation characteristics. All the analysis is carried out for a climate change-sensitive region, the state of Florida, USA. The focus of the climate variability analysis is to evaluate the influence of individual and coupled phases (cool and warm) of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and El Niäno southern oscillation (ENSO) on regional precipitation characteristics. The two oscillations in cool and warm phases modulate each other which have implications on flood control and water supply in the region. Extreme precipitation indices, temporal distribution of rainfall within extreme storm events, dry and wet spell transitions and antecedent conditions preceding extremes are evaluated. Kernel density estimates using Gaussian kernel for distribution-free comparative analysis and bootstrap sampling-based confidence intervals are used to compare warm and cool phases of different lengths. Depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves are also developed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions characterizing the extremes. ... This study also introduces new approaches to optimally select the predictor variables which help in modeling regional precipitation and further provides a mechanism to select an optimum spatial resolution to downscale the precipitation projections. New methods for correcting the biases in monthly downscaled precipitation projections are proposed, developed and evaluated in this study. The methods include bias corrections in an optimization framework using various objective functions, hybrid methods based on universal function approximation and new variants.

Accuracy in estimation of precipitation can be achieved by utilizing the combination of spatial radar reflectivity data (Z) and the high resolution temporal rain gage based rainfall data (R). The study proposes the use of optimization models for optimizing the Z-R coefficients and exponents for different storm types and seasons. Precipitation data based on reflectivity, collected from National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and rain gage data from Southwest Florida Water Management District (SWFWMD) over same temporal resolutions were analyzed using the Rain-Radar- Retrieval (R3) system developed as a part of the study. Optimization formulations are proposed to obtain optimal coefficients and exponents in the Z-R relationships for different seasons and objective selection of storm-type specific Z-R relationships. Different approaches in selection of rain gage stations and selection of events for optimization are proposed using gradient based solver and genetic algorithms.

Traditional methods such as distance weighing, correlation and data driven methods have been used in the estimation of missing precipitation data. Also common is the use of radar (NEXRAD) data to provide better spatial distribution of precipitation as well as infilling missing rain gage data. Conventional regression models are often used to capture highly variant nonlinear spatial and temporal relationships between NEXRAD and rain gage data. This study aims to understand and model the relationships between radar (NEXRAD) estimated rainfall data and the data measured by conventional rain gages. The study is also an investigation into the use of emerging computational data modeling (inductive) techniques and mathematical programming formulations to develop new optimal functional approximations. Radar based rainfall data and rain gage data are analyzed to understand the spatio-temporal associations, as well as the effect of changes in the length or availability of data on the models. The upper and lower Kissimmee basins of south Florida form the test-bed to evaluate the proposed and developed approaches and also to check the validity and operational applicability of these functional relationships among NEXRAD and rain gage data for infilling of missing data.