miseducation of Hugo Chavez

This project examines the role of political learning in predicting the recent rise of left-of-center governments in Latin America, ranging from moderate center-left coalition governments to one-party populist regimes. Studies of populism consistently point to the role of natural resources and economic crises in predicting the rise of populist regimes. This study adds the concept of political learning by using measures of moderation in the current regime as a dependent variable and measures of oppression in earlier regimes as independent variables. Utilizing case studies of Venezuela and Chile as ideal types and plotting ten further cases on indicators of repression, military spending, corporate tax rates, government spending, the percent of votes going to moderates, and economic freedom scores from Freedom House, I argue that the likelihood of the rise of populist regimes is greater in countries that have not experienced the sort of intense political repression that generates political learning.