Populism

This thesis examines the relationship between the political opposition and populism. The goal is to identify when, how, and under what circumstances an opposition to a populist leader affects change to the political system. A comparative historical analysis is employed as five case studies from South America are examined. The evidence presented in these case studies demonstrates that the political oppositions in each country were unsuccessful in affecting change to their respective political systems. They were unable to demobilize the support base that the populist leaders had created. Change came to the political systems in four out of the five case studies only when the populist leader's actions demobilized his support and not from the actions of the opposition.

This project examines the role of political learning in predicting the recent rise of left-of-center governments in Latin America, ranging from moderate center-left coalition governments to one-party populist regimes. Studies of populism consistently point to the role of natural resources and economic crises in predicting the rise of populist regimes. This study adds the concept of political learning by using measures of moderation in the current regime as a dependent variable and measures of oppression in earlier regimes as independent variables. Utilizing case studies of Venezuela and Chile as ideal types and plotting ten further cases on indicators of repression, military spending, corporate tax rates, government spending, the percent of votes going to moderates, and economic freedom scores from Freedom House, I argue that the likelihood of the rise of populist regimes is greater in countries that have not experienced the sort of intense political repression that generates political learning.